原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:
Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.
So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:
- Large capacity from Win Semi
- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while"
And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount).
The nuance I'm reading is:
- $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available
- $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though).
- $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market
Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally.
So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers.
And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)...
Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then?
-> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed.
Why aren't the customers disclosed?
And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with.
But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil.
So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage...
The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements.
And with the sheer size
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:
Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.
So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:
- Large capacity from Win Semi
- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while"
And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount).
The nuance I'm reading is:
- $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available
- $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though).
- $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market
Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally.
So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers.
And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)...
Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then?
-> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed.
Why aren't the customers disclosed?
And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with.
But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil.
So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage...
The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements.
And with the sheer size
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