原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
I actually allocated a sizeable amount to the legacy DRAM trade (did legacy NAND/NOR Q1 this year).
And made legacy DRAM a medium term trade. Since I'm starting to see substantial price hikes and demand imbalance statements.
Just some of my personal notes on July runrates:
ESMT (3006) - $2.53B MC, 1.94x P/E
Etron (5351) - $1.19B, 4.15x P/E
Winbond (2344) - $25.3B, ~6.2x P/E
Nanya (2408) - $55.3B, ~5.5x P/E
PSMC (6770) - $9.4B, ~19.6x P/E
TeamGroup (4967) - $728M, ~2.4x P/E
Transcend (2451) - $4.06B, ~3.3x P/E
Innodisk (5289) - $4.57B, ~3.1x P/E
Apacer (8271) - $937M, ~3.2x P/E
ADATA (3260) - $4.40B, ~2.3x PE
Silicon Power (4973), $318M, ~4.1x P/E
- ESMT (fabless) extraordinary net income growth, wafer supplier in Taiwan, pass through cost, DDR2/DDR3 structurally undersupplied, I see earnings durability throughout 2027, which is why 1.94X P/E was extmreley interesting
- Etron (fabless) I covered before, but monthly profitability is exploding over time, they have a JV with Nanya which kicks off in 2027, and probably my second favorite name
- Winbond, is probably my favorites up there since they actually own fabs and captures downstream products, rather than just wafers like PSMC. Demand visibility I think extends to 2029-2030 now form initial discussions, not exacty an undiscovered name anymore, but I do think it gets re-rated given price hikes/low forward p/e. Maybe 3.5x 2027 earnings for Winbond.. which is also really stellar, but 1.9x current 2026 earnings from ESMT was just insane.
Would say something similar to Nanya that owns DRAM fabs, but Nayna is already well covered.
- Teamgroup expected worse memory shortage around H1 2027, tightening beyond 2027, and they have massive inventory. But it's very inventory heavy type profit.
- TeamGroup, ADATA (extremely inventory heavy), Apacer, Innodisk and Silicon Power had rapidly growing inventory but
I actually allocated a sizeable amount to the legacy DRAM trade (did legacy NAND/NOR Q1 this year).
And made legacy DRAM a medium term trade. Since I'm starting to see substantial price hikes and demand imbalance statements.
Just some of my personal notes on July runrates:
ESMT (3006) - $2.53B MC, 1.94x P/E
Etron (5351) - $1.19B, 4.15x P/E
Winbond (2344) - $25.3B, ~6.2x P/E
Nanya (2408) - $55.3B, ~5.5x P/E
PSMC (6770) - $9.4B, ~19.6x P/E
TeamGroup (4967) - $728M, ~2.4x P/E
Transcend (2451) - $4.06B, ~3.3x P/E
Innodisk (5289) - $4.57B, ~3.1x P/E
Apacer (8271) - $937M, ~3.2x P/E
ADATA (3260) - $4.40B, ~2.3x PE
Silicon Power (4973), $318M, ~4.1x P/E
- ESMT (fabless) extraordinary net income growth, wafer supplier in Taiwan, pass through cost, DDR2/DDR3 structurally undersupplied, I see earnings durability throughout 2027, which is why 1.94X P/E was extmreley interesting
- Etron (fabless) I covered before, but monthly profitability is exploding over time, they have a JV with Nanya which kicks off in 2027, and probably my second favorite name
- Winbond, is probably my favorites up there since they actually own fabs and captures downstream products, rather than just wafers like PSMC. Demand visibility I think extends to 2029-2030 now form initial discussions, not exacty an undiscovered name anymore, but I do think it gets re-rated given price hikes/low forward p/e. Maybe 3.5x 2027 earnings for Winbond.. which is also really stellar, but 1.9x current 2026 earnings from ESMT was just insane.
Would say something similar to Nanya that owns DRAM fabs, but Nayna is already well covered.
- Teamgroup expected worse memory shortage around H1 2027, tightening beyond 2027, and they have massive inventory. But it's very inventory heavy type profit.
- TeamGroup, ADATA (extremely inventory heavy), Apacer, Innodisk and Silicon Power had rapidly growing inventory but
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