failed my own cash conversion test (so I placed them in the inventory beneficiaries).
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
failed my own cash conversion test (so I placed them in the inventory beneficiaries).
I'm sure I might have missed some nuance here, but for the sake of time/modeling, wanted a $SNDK style name that was actively converting into profitability.
Since a lot of them just stocked up or profited off on inventory (which also should translate to earnings) but... despite their low P/E actually lost money H1 or with Transcend issued convertible bonds/dilution to fund it.
- Transcend is probably the one I'm going to look at a bit further, just did lite DD so far since gross margin hit 77%.
- PSMC fwd p/e is a bit higher compared to the rest but they're hiking wafer costs ~45%, so maybe you get ~6.7–9.5× forward P/E, buttt maybe they keep hiking.
TLDR:
-> Liked Etron, ESMT since there's a lot of earnings discovery recently, and would get priced in sooner or later.
-> Nanya/Winbond are probably the most durable of them all.
I do think DDR2/DDR3 trade is more uncharted terrtiory versus your HBM/NAND Samsung/Sk Hynix/Micron, etc.
And we're starting to see another $SNDK type cycle (but maybe less durable, not sure).
Just a notes/thoughts here.
翻译：
我其实把一笔可观的资金配置到了旧制程 DRAM 交易上（今年 Q1 也做了旧制程 NAND/NOR）。
而且我把旧制程 DRAM 变成了一个中期交易。因为我开始看到明显的提价和供需失衡表述。
下面只是我对 7 月运行率的一些个人笔记：
ESMT (3006) - $2.53B 市值，1.94x P/E
Etron (5351) - $1.19B，4.15x P/E
Winbond (2344) - $25.3B，~6.2x P/E
Nanya (2408) - $55.3B，~5.5x P/E
PSMC (6770) - $9.4B，~19.6x P/E
TeamGroup (4967) - $728M，~2.4x P/E
Transcend (2451) - $4.06B，~3.3x P/E
Innodisk (5289) - $4.57B，~3.1x P/E
Apacer (8271) - $937M，~3.2x P/E
ADATA (3260) - $4.40B，~2.3x P/E
Silicon Power (4973)，$318M，~4.1x P/E
- ESMT（fabless）净利润增长异常强劲，是台湾的晶圆供应商，成本可以顺价转嫁，DDR2/DDR3 结构性供给不足。我认为它的盈利持续性会延续到 2027 年，这也是为什么 1.94 倍 P/E 非常有吸引力。
- Etron（fabless）我之前提过，但它的月度盈利在持续爆发式增长，而且他们和 Nanya 有一个合资项目，会在 2027 年启动，所以它大概是我第二喜欢的标的。
- Winbond
I'm sure I might have missed some nuance here, but for the sake of time/modeling, wanted a $SNDK style name that was actively converting into profitability.
Since a lot of them just stocked up or profited off on inventory (which also should translate to earnings) but... despite their low P/E actually lost money H1 or with Transcend issued convertible bonds/dilution to fund it.
- Transcend is probably the one I'm going to look at a bit further, just did lite DD so far since gross margin hit 77%.
- PSMC fwd p/e is a bit higher compared to the rest but they're hiking wafer costs ~45%, so maybe you get ~6.7–9.5× forward P/E, buttt maybe they keep hiking.
TLDR:
-> Liked Etron, ESMT since there's a lot of earnings discovery recently, and would get priced in sooner or later.
-> Nanya/Winbond are probably the most durable of them all.
I do think DDR2/DDR3 trade is more uncharted terrtiory versus your HBM/NAND Samsung/Sk Hynix/Micron, etc.
And we're starting to see another $SNDK type cycle (but maybe less durable, not sure).
Just a notes/thoughts here.
翻译：
我其实把一笔可观的资金配置到了旧制程 DRAM 交易上（今年 Q1 也做了旧制程 NAND/NOR）。
而且我把旧制程 DRAM 变成了一个中期交易。因为我开始看到明显的提价和供需失衡表述。
下面只是我对 7 月运行率的一些个人笔记：
ESMT (3006) - $2.53B 市值，1.94x P/E
Etron (5351) - $1.19B，4.15x P/E
Winbond (2344) - $25.3B，~6.2x P/E
Nanya (2408) - $55.3B，~5.5x P/E
PSMC (6770) - $9.4B，~19.6x P/E
TeamGroup (4967) - $728M，~2.4x P/E
Transcend (2451) - $4.06B，~3.3x P/E
Innodisk (5289) - $4.57B，~3.1x P/E
Apacer (8271) - $937M，~3.2x P/E
ADATA (3260) - $4.40B，~2.3x P/E
Silicon Power (4973)，$318M，~4.1x P/E
- ESMT（fabless）净利润增长异常强劲，是台湾的晶圆供应商，成本可以顺价转嫁，DDR2/DDR3 结构性供给不足。我认为它的盈利持续性会延续到 2027 年，这也是为什么 1.94 倍 P/E 非常有吸引力。
- Etron（fabless）我之前提过，但它的月度盈利在持续爆发式增长，而且他们和 Nanya 有一个合资项目，会在 2027 年启动，所以它大概是我第二喜欢的标的。
- Winbond
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