原文：

原文：
So just tracking the MLCC cycle:

ComponentNews classified server MLCCs as “severe” shortage stage, with ETNews reporting:

- Samsung has reached ~40 week lead times for some high capacitance MLCCs per DigiKey’s shipment data.

Earlier this year, broader reports were ~20 weeks, so the AI server MLCC bottleneck keeps growing.

- Murata was ~24 weeks in June.

July was ~30 weeks. And now some at ~36 weeks.

This was interesting:

“The expansion of new production capacity is being postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027”

Doesn’t say which expansion… maybe Murata? But if capacity expansion reportedly gets stalled, the bottleneck should tighten short term.

Lead times are a good way to track demand imbalances.

翻译：
所以简单跟踪一下 MLCC 周期：

ComponentNews 将服务器用 MLCC 归类为“严重”短缺阶段，ETNews 报道：

- 根据 DigiKey 的发货数据，三星部分高容 MLCC 的交期已达到约 40 周。

今年早些时候，较广泛的报道还是约 20 周，所以 AI 服务器 MLCC 的瓶颈还在持续加剧。

- 村田在 6 月时约为 24 周。

7 月是约 30 周。现在部分已经到约 36 周。

这一点很有意思：

“新的产能扩张被从 2026 年第四季度推迟到 2027 年”

没有说明具体是哪项扩张……可能是 Murata？但如果据称产能扩张被搁置，短期内瓶颈应该会进一步收紧。

交期是跟踪供需失衡的一个很好的方式。