原文：
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
Serenity 白毛女-中文翻译（公开）
原文：
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026?
Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA.
If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028.
Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet?
With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped?
I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals.
It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently.
Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage.
In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do.
Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time.
So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes.
And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
翻译：
同意！在市场崩盘期间，回忆你的投资论点是件好事。
根据我的个人投资论点，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年 Q3 初达到 14 亿美元的季度收入，这意味着年收入为 56 亿美元，市值为 80 亿美元。
如果到 2026 年，季度财报中还没有出现这样的收入增长，那么这对公司来说就是“结束”了吗？
同样适用于我的 CPO 板块投资，如 $SIVE，它由 $NVDA 领导的架构转变。
如果 2026 年下半年到 2027 年的规模扩张和 2028 年的大规模扩张都能实现。
那么，高盛预测的 0 到 910 亿美元的市场规模扩张还没有实现，这对公司来说就是“结束”了吗？
对于像 Agility 这样的机器人公司，如果到 2026 年还没有上市，人类机器人还没有实现，那么这对公司来说就是“结束”了吗？
我个人认为，当前的市场状况反映了流动性和杠杆的影响，而不是个别公司的基本面。
最近，KOSPI、台湾、日经和 AI、机器人板块的股票暴跌，对每个人来说都是残酷的。
尤其是当这些杠杆带来很多不理性的行为时。
Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash.
From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC.
Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly earnings… when it’s 2026?
Same applies to my CPO sector exposure like $SIVE, an architecture shift led by $NVDA.
If scale out volume ramps from H2 2026 into 2027, and scale up heavily volume ramps into 2028.
Is it “over” that $0 -> $91B TAM expansion (per GS) hasn’t even hit yet?
With robotics like Agility, is it over in 2026 if the listing hasn’t even happened yet and humanoids haven’t ramped?
I personally think current market conditions are a reflection of liquidity and leverage, not individual fundamentals.
It’s brutal for everyone to see KOSPI, TW, Nikkei, and AI, space, robotics sector stocks crash recently.
Especially when there’s a lot of irrational behavior stemming from those leverage.
In the end, we can’t tell you what stocks to buy, what timeframe you should sell, how to size your positions, or what you should do.
Only share personal thoughts or research and track if they get validated over time.
So it’s extremely important to build your own thesis, since everyone has unique risk tolerance or investing timeframes.
And that usually leads to having higher conviction during crashes.
翻译：
同意！在市场崩盘期间，回忆你的投资论点是件好事。
根据我的个人投资论点，如果 $AAOI 在 2027 年 Q3 初达到 14 亿美元的季度收入，这意味着年收入为 56 亿美元，市值为 80 亿美元。
如果到 2026 年，季度财报中还没有出现这样的收入增长，那么这对公司来说就是“结束”了吗？
同样适用于我的 CPO 板块投资，如 $SIVE，它由 $NVDA 领导的架构转变。
如果 2026 年下半年到 2027 年的规模扩张和 2028 年的大规模扩张都能实现。
那么，高盛预测的 0 到 910 亿美元的市场规模扩张还没有实现，这对公司来说就是“结束”了吗？
对于像 Agility 这样的机器人公司，如果到 2026 年还没有上市，人类机器人还没有实现，那么这对公司来说就是“结束”了吗？
我个人认为，当前的市场状况反映了流动性和杠杆的影响，而不是个别公司的基本面。
最近，KOSPI、台湾、日经和 AI、机器人板块的股票暴跌，对每个人来说都是残酷的。
尤其是当这些杠杆带来很多不理性的行为时。
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