Mixin--Renee

📊 Mixin Daily Market Watch

💰 ETF Inflows Lose Momentum
On September 29, US spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $66.2 million in net inflows, while ETH ETFs saw $2.8 million in net outflows.

Last week, from September 21 to 25, BTC and ETH spot ETFs attracted a combined $3.076 billion in net inflows. Buying over the past two trading sessions has slowed considerably by comparison.

BTC ETFs remain in positive territory, but whether fresh buying can sustain momentum will depend on flows over the coming sessions. With ETF demand easing, the market may need another catalyst.

🏦 Treasury Yields Ease From Highs, but Rate Pressure Remains
On September 29, the US 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5.293%, its highest since 2007. The 30-year yield also touched approximately 5.62%, a level last seen in 2002. During early European trading today, the 10-year yield eased to around 5.21%, though it remains elevated.

Long-term Treasury yields have risen sharply throughout September. Key concerns include inflation risks from energy prices, increased government borrowing, and a larger supply of bonds.

For crypto, a modest pullback in yields could offer some short-term relief. Whether that develops into a lasting tailwind will depend on inflation data and expectations for future interest rates.

💵 Dollar Holds Monthly Gains as Financial Conditions Stay Tight
The dollar has gained approximately 2% in September, supported by rising Treasury yields. It edged lower today, however, so the move has not been a steady climb.

The key question now is whether the dollar and Treasury yields can retreat together. If both turn higher again, stocks and crypto could face further pressure on valuations.

🌍 Oil Pulls Back, but Iran Remains a Key Variable
During early European trading today, Brent crude traded around $102.47 per barrel, while US WTI crude stood near $89.41 per barrel. Prices have eased from recent highs, but supply risks linked to the Middle East conflict remain.

Diplomatic developments and energy supply conditions will be important to watch. A renewed, sustained rise in oil prices could add to inflation pressure and shift expectations for Fed policy.

📊 All Eyes on Today’s US PCE Inflation Report
The US will release its August PCE inflation report today at 12:30 UTC, alongside the third estimate of second-quarter GDP. The data has not yet been released.

Forecasts for annual core PCE inflation vary slightly across sources: some expect 3.3%, while others show 3.4%. Assessing any surprise requires checking the forecast being used and the monthly reading as well.

Hotter-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations for further rate hikes. A softer reading could ease some rate pressure. The market reaction will also depend on how Treasury yields, the dollar, and risk assets respond together.

On employment, August JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million, while layoffs remained low. This points to cooling labor demand, without clear signs of a widespread layoff wave.

The September nonfarm payrolls report is due this Friday, October 2 at 12:30 UTC, offering another check on labor-market resilience.

🔍 What to Watch Next
✅ Today’s PCE inflation report and GDP revision
✅ Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report
✅ Whether the 10-year Treasury yield continues to ease
✅ Whether the dollar extends its short-term pullback
✅ Oil prices and developments involving Iran
✅ Whether BTC and ETH ETF inflows regain momentum

⚠️ Risk Watch
The key relationship to watch is the interaction between inflation, interest rates, the dollar, and energy prices.

Treasury yields and oil prices have eased, but upcoming data will help determine whether that relief can last. Meanwhile, slower ETF buying leaves short-term momentum dependent on fresh demand and a more supportive macro backdrop.

Today’s PCE report and Friday’s payrolls data could bring sharp swings. Watch both the numbers and the market’s response, avoid drawing conclusions from a single reading, and keep position sizes and leverage in check.